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首頁> 外文學(xué)位 >Disaggregate travel demand models for large metropolitan areas and their reliability over time.
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Disaggregate travel demand models for large metropolitan areas and their reliability over time.

機(jī)譯：分解大城市地區(qū)的旅行需求模型及其隨時間的可靠性。

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Statistical stability of the travel demand models over time is not conclusively reported in previous works which have demonstrated the significance of several factors in trip making such as income, household size, automobile ownership and population density. This study examines travel demand models over time using United States Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (U.S. NPTS) datasets. The role of new variables such as life cycle stage and distance to public transportation are tested in the models.; The analyses show that a systematic relationship exists between the life cycle stage and the number of trips generated daily by a household; and between the distance of a household to public transportation facilities and the number of automobile and public transportation trips made by a household. The life cycle stage models show the highest travel activity in a household consisting of two adults and school-aged children. As expected public transportation model show a declining trend in public transportation trips as a household is located further away from the nearest public transportation facilities. The other socioeconomic models developed in this research are similar to previous findings in many aspects except household income and vehicles ownership.; All of the models developed are not stable over the three time periods tested.
機(jī)譯：在以前的工作中并沒有最終報(bào)告旅行需求模型隨時間的統(tǒng)計(jì)穩(wěn)定性，這些數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)證明了旅行的幾個因素的重要性，例如收入，家庭規(guī)模，汽車擁有量和人口密度。本研究使用美國全國個人交通調(diào)查（U.S. NPTS）數(shù)據(jù)集檢查了一段時間內(nèi)的旅行需求模型。在模型中測試了新變量的作用，例如生命周期階段和到公共交通的距離。分析表明，生命周期階段與一個家庭每天產(chǎn)生的出行次數(shù)之間存在系統(tǒng)的關(guān)系。一個家庭到公共交通設(shè)施的距離與一個家庭乘汽車和公共交通的次數(shù)之間的關(guān)系。生命周期階段模型顯示了一個由兩個成年人和學(xué)齡兒童組成的家庭中最高的旅行活動。正如預(yù)期的那樣，由于家庭離最近的公共交通設(shè)施越來越遠(yuǎn)，因此公共交通出行的趨勢呈下降趨勢。該研究開發(fā)的其他社會經(jīng)濟(jì)模型在許多方面都與以前的發(fā)現(xiàn)相似，除了家庭收入和車輛所有權(quán)。在測試的三個時間段內(nèi)，所有開發(fā)的模型均不穩(wěn)定。

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