Developing a disaggregate travel demand system of models using data mining techniques

Ghasri Milad; Rashidi Taha Hossein; Waller S. Travis

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Developing a disaggregate travel demand system of models using data mining techniques

機譯：使用數據挖掘技術開發模型的分類旅行需求系統

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The travel demand modelling has experienced a paradigm shift from aggregate to disaggregate models, leading to an increase in computational time and simulation cost. Meanwhile, transferability models have emerged to reduce the associated cost and computational burden, but haven't discounted the disaggregation level. This research proposes the proof of the concept of an innovative transferability modelling framework to estimate total number of trips and trip attributes in a tour of trips at a disaggregate level. In contrast to tour-based or activity-based models, the focus of transferability models is on replicating trip patterns rather than reflecting travellers' behaviour. Similar to previous transferability models, classifying decision tree is utilized as one of the modelling techniques in this study. Moreover, the merits of a modified version of decision tree and the random forest methods are examined. Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) in 2007 and 2009 are utilized to calibrate and validate the proposed framework, respectively. According to the results, the random forest method shows highest individual-level accuracy while matching the system-level observed distributions.

機譯：出行需求建模經歷了從匯總模型到分解模型的范式轉變，導致計算時間和仿真成本增加。同時，出現了可轉移性模型以減少相關的成本和計算負擔，但并未降低分解水平。這項研究提出了一種創新的可轉移性建?？蚣艿母拍畹淖C明，該框架可用于以分解級別估算行程中的行程總數和行程屬性。與基于旅行或基于活動的模型相反，可轉移性模型的重點是復制旅行模式，而不是反映旅行者的行為。與以前的可傳遞性模型相似，分類決策樹被用作本研究中的一種建模技術。此外，研究了決策樹的修改版本和隨機森林方法的優點。維多利亞州2007年和2009年的旅行和活動綜合調查（VISTA）分別用于校準和驗證提議的框架。根據結果??，隨機森林方法在匹配系統級觀察到的分布的同時，顯示出最高的個體級精度。

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《Transportation Research》 |2017年第11期|138-153|共16頁
作者
Ghasri Milad; Rashidi Taha Hossein; Waller S. Travis;
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Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Res Ctr Integrated Transport Innovat RCITI, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;

Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Res Ctr Integrated Transport Innovat RCITI, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;

Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Res Ctr Integrated Transport Innovat RCITI, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;

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正文語種 eng
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關鍵詞
Travel demand modelling; Disaggregate modelling structure; Transferability modelling; Random forest;

機譯：出行需求建模;分解建模結構;可傳遞性建模;隨機森林;

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Developing a disaggregate travel demand system of models using data mining techniques

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